Who benefits from a strong Huckabee campaign?

Mike Huckabee's latest surge in the polls seems like a bit of a win for social conservatives and Christians in the Republican party - especially if you're comparing him to Romney and Giuliani.  His positions on gay marriage, gun rights, abortion, and the war on terror are right in line with what would traditionally expect from a conservative presidential candidate.

However, when one starts to examine his positions on medicine, spending, and the general role of government in micro-managing society, he's out of touch with the traditional conservative position - or maybe not.  In the last seven years of the Bush administration, and even moreso since 9-11-2001, the Republican party has been less and less driven by a mission to restrain government growth.  In this sense, Mike Huckabee could very well be the "New Traditional Conservative."

Compromise Conservative, or New Conservative?

 

The 2006 election giving Congress to the Democrats was a notification to the Republican party that it needed to win a few more votes - branch out and try new candidates.  The primary season has given us plenty of that, with the most traditional conservatives Thompson and McCain showing only lukewarm support.  I have a hard time explaining why Romney and Giuliani would come out as early front runners because it seems like they really only connect with Republican voters on the War on Terror - and they might as well be Democrats in everything else.  OK, who cares if he spends tax money faster than he can increase taxes, at least Huckabee is right about God, Guns, and Glory...?

 

But Economics isn't the only place Huckabee disconnects with Republican voters.  On immigration, he's tried in the last year to moderate his extremely pro-immigrant views.  In Sept. 2001 he was calling for guest worker programs for Mexican farmers, and in Jan. 2007 he wanted total amnesty with a path to citizenship so long as the illegal immigrants paid a fine (Hey, its like a tax, right? Mike like tax!)

 

 

Can he Win?

 

He might be able to win the Republican primary, and his trend line would predict it unless he takes a quick turn soon.

 

Can he win a general election?  Not unless the Democrats really screw up.   Huckabee can get some solid conservative voting support to the polls, but he's going to alienate a lot of the base with his taxation, spending, immigration, and health policies (like favoring a national public smoking ban).

And although Hillary has been losing her lead against her Democratic opponents, she is quietly holding her advantage against the Republican contenders.  In this Rasmussen poll, Hillary and Obama are both able to beat Huckabee in a national contest.

 

The fundamental problem with a Huckabee candidacy is that he excites the wrong base.  His comments on homosexuals and AIDS patients is way more extreme than what most people, even people who oppose gay marriage, are trying to support - but gay rights activists are going to be out there actively working against him.   His focus on preventative medicine and medical reform isn't going to win him friends from the right, and his view on immigration are against what the majority of voters in either party wants.

 

 

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Copyright (C) 2007 Alain Georgette / Copyright (C) 2006 Frantisek Hliva. All rights reserved.