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Republican Primaries in Florida: Why Romney will Win |
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Tuesday, 22 January 2008 |
Update:
I was wong, wrong, wrong! McCain wins Florida and it was not a completely closed primary after all. (Although, it should have been!)
Florida has moved up its primary and is set to play a huge part in the presidential selection this year. The Democratic party has eliminated this by reducing Florida's delegates to zero, but the Republicans have sought to moderate the effect by cutting the delegates in half. The state GOP chief says the effect will likely be temporary, but even at half the delegates, whoever wins the Florida Republican primary will be the new campaign front-runner.
Florida is a closed primary - Only people who were registered Republican by 12/31/07 will be allowed to vote in the Republican primary Florida is a winner-take-all state - There will be no prize for second place. There are at least 57 delegates and as many as 114 for the winner.
The fact that Florida is a closed primary is going to
really hurt McCain and in this particular case, Giuliani. McCain has
won a lot of votes from self-described Democrats, moderates, and
independents, but this election is about who the Republicans like.
Giuliani might have done well with the population of ex-New Englanders in south
Florida, but they are in counties that are full of voters who are
registered as Democrats.
Romney has already spent the last few days campaigning in north
and central Florida, where a large supply of registered Republican
voters are. The overall population is lower, but Romney's strategy is
likely to pay off big time as he spent a significant amount of time
here meeting with local businesses and making personal appearances at
large employers. Where Giuliani held speeches and rallies in hopes that crowds would come to him, Romney has gone out to the voters - and he's been able to reach more people and generate more buzz in a much shorter period of time. As Romney moves south, he is continuing to target highly conservative groups and reaching out to high employing businesses. He's finding the audience that is likely to vote, and taking his message straight to them. In the closed primary, this is likely to be much more successful than Giuliani's open-door events and McCain's cross-over appeal.
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Last Updated ( Wednesday, 09 April 2008 )
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