Its probably foolish to use history to predict the future, in such a literal sense, but it it sure is fun.  There are also distinct trends that are hard to explain away, so imagine my relief when I learned that my "crazy theory" was shared by at least a few others. 

According to this book, the current phase of history, or the one we're entering soon, is the "crisis."  In a way, it could be said that the problems that have gone unaddressed (debt, social security, environment) will need to be answered over the next twenty or so years so that the twenty following it can become a new "high."

In other words, the crisis is a period of hard work, tight belts, and working toward the infrastructure and institutional reforms that will serve for future prosperity.  There is not one specific crisis one can point to (no one rings a bell at the market's bottom) but rather a protected sense of doubt, and a growing willingness to find new solutions that haven't been tried yet.  (This isn't necessarily a good thing, either)

Strauss & Howe point to the New Deal and come to the conclusion that crises are resolved with liberal political solutions, but I point to the American revolution and say they can be solved with more conservative and libertarian methods.  What I think is important is the nature of the crisis, and today, the crisis that threatens the American economy is primarily related to a massive debt-load brought on by liberal politics (and more recently, big-government conservatives).

I think things will seem fairly mundane, I don't predict major uprisings or anarchy or anything like that.  I'm expecting a change in the mood - like a drunk waking up with a hangover, swearing to never touch the booze again (at least for a while).   

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Copyright (C) 2007 Alain Georgette / Copyright (C) 2006 Frantisek Hliva. All rights reserved.