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| Re-Living History (The Next Revolution) |
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| Sunday, 13 April 2008 | ||||||
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It has often been said that "Those who do not understand history are
doomed to repeat it." Well, I've studied a lot of history and I have
come to a slightly different conclusion: Whether or not you understand
history, you are still doomed to repeat it. http://www.timepage.org/time.html#cycles The central thesis of the book is that one historical cycle includes four (or rarely three) predictable generational cohort types. Each generation influences the next, and the cycle is repeated approximately every 80 years. This is no crystal ball for predicting the future. But! when the pattern is considered, the regularity of American political revolution becomes quite clear. 1st Revolution: In 1764, English legislation created a financial catastrophe in the colonies. They would revolt by 1776. 2nd Revolution: 85 years later, a different type of economic & social conflict would lead to a different type of revolution - the Civil War. The causes & consequences were completely unlike the last revolution - but the timing fits the pattern. 3rd Revolution: 75 years from the onset of the civil war, the Great Depression set the stage for America's third revolution - the socialist, ultra-federalist New Deal revolution. Like it or not, this is the dominant political paradigm of the modern era. America's domestic policy includes Keynesian government spending programs & heavy corporate and personal regulation. Foreign policy is characterized by Wilsonian idealism - the belief that U.S. military power is, de-facto, a force for liberty and democratization anywhere it is active. 4th Revolution(?): Today we sit about 80 years from the last great economic crisis, but even if we are sure "something" of a significant political magnitude will happen next, we can only speculate on what it is. The cycle predicts nothing less than a revolutionary shift in the way the U.S. government operates. But be warned: A revolution does not always indicate increased wealth & liberty. Take to mind the October Revolution in Russia, or any of the failed more recent revolutions in South America. Many times, a revolution is by the government and for the government - and only at the expense of the people. As the social order itself is literally "up for grabs" just once in a lifetime, the importance of propaganda and conditioning becomes central to understand the goals of the ruling class. Re-living history doesn't mean we know how the game will end, just when we can expect it to start.
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