It’s been about four and a half months since coronavirus was declared a national health emergency, and unfortunately we’ve made very little progress in stopping it. It’s true that we’ve “bent the curve” but that simply means slowing the rate of new infections. In the best case scenario, this might buy us enough time to find a vaccine or treatment. In the worst case, we simply drag out the economic damage while ending up with almost as many deaths as if we’d done nothing at all.
How’d we get in to this situation, and how do we get out?
There’s a school of thought that seems to believe that problems can simply be ignored, wished away, or defeated with a clever campaign of public relations. For this group, anything that disrupts business and profitability must be marginalized. They’re primarily accustomed to defeating protests with advertising and clever headlines.
But the coronavirus isn’t like most of the social and economic disruptions they’re used to defeating with this strategy.
Coronavirus doesn’t care about your PR approach: it spreads mechanically and methodically as a function of social distancing, shutdowns, and other safety mechanisms in place. Without any response, the virus would quickly burn its way through the population, leaving perhaps a million dead Americans and millions more with long term health consequences.
Bending the curve
“Bend the curve” emerged early as a sort of compromise position. The idea was that we could avoid the worst consequences of the virus if we slowed its spread down just enough to prevent hospitals from being completely overwhelmed. This school of thought seems resigned to the fact that everyone’s going to catch the virus eventually, but if we manage it somewhat we might be able to take the edge off its worst effects.
The problem is that even bending the curve requires a pretty significant social response, and people will only willingly stay at home for a few weeks or months before they get bored and restless.
We have to stamp it out
Bending the curve doesn’t stop the spread. It does slow it down slightly, but that won’t be good enough.
Even if the U.S. were collectively willing to allow this death to spread unchecked, the global and economic consequences will be dire. China is dealing with a second wave right now, and they’re blaming imported food. If they do decide agricultural imports are the source of new infection, they may move to cut off markets in countries that have failed to address the pandemic. This could cost the U.S. up to $130 billion in annual food exports, and that in turn would explode the trade deficit and crush the U.S. Dollar.
Here’s what works
While this particular illness is novel and there was a lot of confusion about how to defeat it early on, we’re definitely starting to see a picture of what works from the nations that have successfully stamped out the pandemic:
- Masks
- Test & Trade
- Central Quarantine
- Take it Outside
Masks can be extremely effective. Even if they aren’t n95 rated, the amount of viral particles inhaled or exhaled in to the environment are reduced dramatically. Early guidance was a little uncertain on this one, but the evidence is in and it’s overwhelming. Get your mask up!
Testing & tracing is also essential. While we’ve done well in expanding our capacity to test for the virus, we haven’t made as much progress in tracing the contacts each infected person has had. This tactic was extremely effective in South Korea, where what started as a large outbreak was very quickly contained. Their experience in Korea also shows us that a few people can be responsible for a large number of cases.
Central Quarantine is a topic we haven’t even started discussing, but it may be essential to victory over the pandemic. China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, and several other nations have set up dedicated facilities for people who are positive with the virus. This keeps them from spreading the illness to family members and housemates – especially family members and housemates who may then go out to the grocery store & other places they might spread it even further.
Take it Outside. The evidence is also overwhelming that coronavirus primarily spreads in indoor environments. Bars, restaurants, gyms, and conventions have been hotbeds of infectious spread. Whether they’re legally required to close or not, people should try to avoid any indoor spaces as much as possible.
The stakes are high and there’s no opt-out
The United States must grapple with an existential crisis developing in tandem with the pandemic. Our privileged economic position largely depends upon our role as a global leader, but that credibility will be undercut dramatically if we’re unable to solve this problem while other nations do.